Andy Burnham in line to send state pensioners over age 73 £59 less a week
State pensioners aged over 73 are set to fall further behind their younger counterparts under Prime Minister Andy Burnham's commitment to maintain the Triple Lock. Under a forecast 4.3 per cent increase in the state pension next April, the gap between full and basic state pension rates will widen significantly, with older pensioners receiving £59 less per week than full pensioners. This difference would amount to over £3,000 a year, widening a two-tier system that has previously drawn criticism for being fundamentally unfair.
The Widening Pension Gap
Under the government's commitment to keep the Triple Lock, the full state pension is forecast to rise to £251 a week, while the basic state pension will only increase to £192 a week. This £59 weekly difference works out to £236 over a four-week pay period, equivalent to over £3,000 annually. The two-tier system reflects eligibility rules based on when pensioners reached state pension age. Nearly two-thirds of state pensioners – 8.4 million people – receive the basic rate after reaching pension age before April 2016, meaning most are aged 73 or older by spring 2027. By contrast, one in three state pensioners – 4.7 million – receive the new State Pension, having reached retirement age after April 2016.
Under more extreme projections, if the state pension were to rise by 4.8 per cent, as it did in 2026, the full pension would rise to £252.88 a week or £13,149.88 a year, whilst the basic would only rise to £10,075 – a difference of £3,074 per year. The WASPI campaign has previously warned that the two-tier pension system is unfair, and Burnham's decision to maintain the Triple Lock will only exacerbate this inequality. The exact figures will be confirmed by Chancellor John Healey at the Budget on October 28.
The Government's Triple Lock Commitment
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has confirmed he will keep the Triple Lock, a policy that guarantees the state pension increases annually by the highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent. The government will use wage growth – currently forecast at 4.3 per cent – as the measure for next year's increase, as it is the highest of the three metrics. Burnham has pledged to maintain this commitment despite mounting pressure to abandon the policy, having confirmed this position in a Reddit AMA with the electorate. The Makerfield MP has stated he will stick to his party's 2024 manifesto commitment not to raise the headline rates of income tax, VAT, or national insurance.
The government's commitment means that state pensioners are receiving substantially more under the Triple Lock than they would under inflation-only increases. Had Britain calculated increases based solely on inflation since 2016 rather than the Triple Lock mechanism, pensioners would be receiving just £11,267 per year – a shortfall of £1,280 compared to today's £12,547. One analysis suggested that if the state pension rose by 4.8 per cent in 2027, pensioners on the new state pension could receive as much as £1,012 a month.
However, the government's decision carries significant fiscal risks. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official fiscal watchdog, has warned that the Triple Lock could put the government's finances on an unsustainable path and could cost £15 billion a year by the end of the decade.
Mounting Expert Opposition
Despite the government's commitment, criticism of the Triple Lock continues to mount from multiple quarters. The Resolution Foundation, a think tank previously led by pensions minister Torsten Bell, has called for the policy to be scrapped, stating: "As well as being unfair it is also not fiscally sustainable for the state pension to rise forever by more than the earnings of a typical worker."
The Tony Blair Institute has described the Triple Lock as an unaffordable policy. Daniel Hannan, President of the Institute of Economic Affairs and an independent peer in the House of Lords, has urged Burnham to work with other parties in scrapping the Triple Lock. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has similarly urged Labour to ditch the Triple Lock promise to help tackle the UK's straitened public finances, warning the triple lock puts upward pressure on public expenditure and adds significant fiscal risks by exposing public finances to supply shocks.
Despite this mounting criticism, Burnham has committed to keeping the Triple Lock in place along with every major political party except the Greens. Sir Steve Webb, the former Pensions Minister who created the Triple Lock metric, has acknowledged the triple lock cannot continue infinitely, previously suggesting alternative systems such as linking the pension to a certain proportion of average earnings or to inflation or earnings increases.