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Following the ONS’s Q2 data, policy institutes emphasised that the UK’s fundamental fiscal trade-offs remain acute.
The Resolution Foundation noted that GDP per head has risen by 0.7% since the election but warned that revenue pressures, public-service demands and investment needs will constrain the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre.
With the government prioritising productivity and planning reforms to raise trend growth, the Autumn Budget is expected to focus on targeted investment, skills and measures to mobilise private capital, including via pensions.
Yet the combination of elevated debt-interest costs, demographic pressures and a desire to maintain fiscal credibility under the rules implies limited scope for broad tax cuts; indeed, tax-base reforms and relief retargeting are under discussion.
For markets, credible medium-term plans are key to anchoring gilt term premia and supporting sterling.
For households and businesses, clarity on allowances, investment incentives and energy policies will shape confidence.
The debate also intersects with regulators’ agendas on utilities and financial services, where consumer protection and investment imperatives must be balanced.
In short, better near-term growth has not eliminated the structural choices confronting fiscal policy into 2026.




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