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Following the ONS’s Q2 GDP release, several bank economists and think-tanks argued that the stronger-than-expected 0.3% print could slow the pace of additional BoE easing.
The August Monetary Policy Report had pencilled in softer activity, so the upside surprise, coupled with persistent services inflation and still-elevated wage growth, strengthens the case for a pause to assess the effects of prior cuts.
Markets reflected this with a modest trimming of rate-cut pricing for late 2025/early 2026 and a firmer pound.
For households, a slower easing path implies mortgage rates may drift down more gradually, keeping refinancing costs above pre-pandemic norms for longer; for savers, deposit rates may also fall but remain competitive at the top of the tables.
For the Treasury, steadier growth is welcome but does not remove the need for credible fiscal plans.
The analysis aligns with a broader theme across advanced economies: central banks are walking a fine line between supporting activity and ensuring inflation durably returns to target, with data dependence and meeting-by-meeting guidance the dominant communication approach.
The BoE’s split vote epitomises this balance and keeps upcoming inflation and labour-market releases in sharp focus.




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