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GBP/USD advanced to multi-week highs, leaving the pound up meaningfully in August as global rate expectations shifted.
Softer US inflation and labour data increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, weighing on the dollar, while a stronger-than-expected UK GDP print prompted investors to trim aggressive BoE easing bets for the remainder of 2025.
Traders also cited supportive risk sentiment and a modest uptick in gilt yields as factors underpinning sterling.
For UK importers, a firmer currency eases near-term cost pressures, while for exporters it can dent competitiveness, particularly in price-sensitive markets.
For households, a stronger pound can dampen pass-through inflation via energy and goods, helping the BoE’s disinflation effort at the margin.
Foreign-exchange strategists caution that sterling’s path will hinge on incoming UK inflation and wage data, which remain volatile, and on how the MPC frames risks after its narrow August cut.
With markets still discounting another 25bp reduction by early 2026, any upside surprises on prices could extend sterling’s gains, while a negative growth shock or dovish guidance would likely reverse them.
In the meantime, volatility around major geopolitics-linked headlines could inject swings into GBP crosses.




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