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Updated industry forecasts indicate Ofgem’s default tariff price cap is likely to dip by around 1% in October 2025 to roughly £1,698 a year for a typical dual-fuel customer (direct debit), down from £1,720 in Q3.
While the reduction is modest, it would extend the gradual normalisation of bills from their 2023 peaks and marginally ease pressure on household budgets.
The outlook reflects wholesale gas and power prices stabilising at lower levels, improved storage, and softer demand.
However, analysts caution that geopolitical risks and weather can quickly shift the trajectory, and that standing charges remain elevated, blunting the benefit for low-usage customers.
For the broader economy, any relief supports real disposable incomes and may reduce arrears stress, but the cap remains far above pre-crisis norms, keeping energy efficiency and targeted support on the policy agenda.
Retailers have begun to re-introduce competitive fixed deals, some below the projected cap, appealing to customers prioritising bill certainty; yet locking in carries the risk of overpaying if the cap falls further in 2026.
Businesses on variable contracts see similar dynamics, with procurement strategies focusing on staged hedging and flexibility ahead of winter.




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